Analysts believe that the market cycle of four years is changing. The halving schedule may not be sufficient to determine cyclical conditions. Bitcoin closes in at the midpoint between halvings.
The halving refers to when the Bitcoin (BTC), rewards for each new block that is mined are reduced by half. The next halving is scheduled for May 5, 2024 and will reduce block rewards to 3.125 BTC.
@Alerzio, a Santiment blogger on April 4, stated that $50K is the important resistance. This blog said that breaking this level by or about the next mid-halving April 11 would raise doubts about the possibility of the market’s traditional market cycle being broken.
“If the price (stabilizes above this level), then we can give more credit the thesis that states: ‘This cycle is different from the others’.”
Bitcoin is down about 3.31% in the last 24 hours, and around 6.51% for this week. There are still a few days left. According to Cointelegraph data, it is currently trading at $43,528
Bitcoin has seen four halvings thus far. Each of them have experienced a similar sequence of three events over the span of four years, as described by Santiment. An apparent divergence from this cycle has begun:
“History won’t be the same as it was before,” I believe.
Santiment showed that after every halving, a bull markets took place where price increased along with network activity. Then, price reached an all-time high due to a dramatic climax which leads to an all time high (ATH). This occurred from the May 2020 halving up to the November 2021 peak.
An extended bear market typically occurs at the next mid-halving. Santiment says that although the market is signaling an end to the four-year cycle, the network is near mid-halving. However, there is no extended bear market.
Willy Woo, an Onchain Bitcoin analyst, has made a similar observation. On Mar. On Mar.
The first signs of “The Last Cycle,” the thesis, are likely to be visible. Since the 2019 bottom, there have been three relatively brief bull and bear markets. i.e. There are no more 4-year cycles. https://t.co/N3VzlKx2IA
— Willy Woo, @woonomic, March 20, 2022
He also pointed out the shorter bull and bear markets that have been observed since 2019, without any climactic blowoff-top.
Woo believes that the unpredictable new cycle will be dominated a complex interplay of supply and demand. This may be evident from Santiment’s findings, which show that network activity has increased at a faster rate than the mid-halving of 2018. A higher level of network activity means that there is more demand.
Related: Bitcoin drops below $44K in April as a trader warns that’something is wrong’ with BTC
Philip Swift, founder of Bitcoin data provider Look Into Bitcoin believes that the four-year cycle has been broken and has “been gone a while.” In a tweet to Woo, Swift stated that there is “one more cycle” before $BTC enters a new growth phase …”.