After a late surge that produced a better weekly close than many predicted, Bitcoin (BTC), is now back at $57,000.
Bitcoin recovered from last week’s Coronavirus-induced selloff and price drop by passing $58,000 overnight. It then consolidated higher, still at 5.7%.
Many things could surprise you about the outlook. There are still Coronavirus nerves, macro markets hint before they open and sellers have the option to take advantage of leveraged optimists who benefit from the latest gains.
Cointelegraph looks at the numbers with everything in play and the monthly close due within 48 hours.
Record time Bitcoin rebound
Three days after losing $6,000 in one daily candle, BTC price action has already recovered from the brink.
BTC/USD rose to produce an average weekly close on Bitstamp of $57,300, avoiding its lowest weekly closing price in two years.
Since then, the gains have held steady with $57,000 remaining the main focus as of Monday’s writing.
Popular analyst and trader Rekt Capital analyzed the data again. He noted that the 21-week exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $52,500 provided support as a “time tested bull market indicator.”
He summarized, “Strong BTC response from the 21-week EMA region.”
BTC/USD 1-week Candle Chart (Bitstamp), with 21-week EMA. Source: TradingView
Despite reaching $58,300 local highs, Bitcoin has not yet seen a breakthrough, with major resistance at $60,000 still untouched.
Since losing support, all previous attempts to break into that zone have been met with a firm refusal.
BTC 4hr (linear): Parallel cannel pic.twitter.com/pqrEfHQoHr
— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) November 29, 2021
Data shows that liquidations have risen to $300 million in the last 24 hours, despite being surprised by the uptick.
On Sunday, the neutral funding rates were also rising, signalling optimism over a reliable BTC price rebound and the risks that it entails.
Rekt Capital said that all it took to dispel the fears and anxieties of a new BTC Bear Market was a daily candle at +7%.
He said that BTC/USD is “progressing favorably”, when it comes down to the monthly close due on Tuesday.
A March 2020 replay and Coronavirus
Macro markets expect a volatile start to the week due to the new Coronavirus variant, Omicron, continuing to bite sentiment.
Priya Misra (global head of rates strategy, TD Securities), said Monday that “we really need more answers to figure out how the impact on growth.”
“Risk assets are pricing uncertainty.”
Last week saw major volatility as Bitcoin and other altcoins followed oil, stocks and other commodities in a blitz sale.
Asian markets are expected to continue this trend on Monday’s open. 1-2% drop is expected at the time.
Bitcoin is on the rise and any further disruptions to macro structures could still halt this newfound optimism.
Bulls hope that the situation will be similar to March 2020 when a cross-crypto rout known as Coronavirus swept the globe and subsequently led to a price surge that exceeded all previous highs.
Many are afraid of another bitcoin liquidation in 2020. If you have your keys and don’t use leverage, this is not a concern. However, I expect it will be swift and brutal. Most traders who try to trade this will get rekt. Stay humble and stack
— ODELL (@ODELL), November 28, 2021
Bitcoin was not spared, however, as familiar faces gathered to ridicule what they claim is no escape from danger.
“Being less risky does not make Bitcoin safer,” Peter Schiff, a gold bug, argued Friday. He predicted that Bitcoin would eventually become “as dangerous as any other altcoin.”
BTC/USD 1-hour candle charts (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Floor: $50,000 Echoes $30,000
People who are concerned about a possible retracement of current levels need not look too far below the BTC price chart.
Material Scientist’s latest orderbook data shows that a huge buy wall has been put in place, which should keep the market above $50,000.
Although the stakes are high (some said that they would lose that level) it seems less likely now given the support.
Material Scientist tweeted Sunday, “Not sure why your all so scared,”
“This is the largest bid since the bottom of the 30k range.”
Heatmap of BTC/USD orderbook. Source: Material Scientist/Twitter
If $50,000 were the new $30,000 it would consider the current retracement of all-time highs modest in comparison with other retracements, such as the May dip that was nearly half off.
Material Scientist continued to observe something extraordinary — the same entity that provided support placed resistance at $70,000.
It explained that “essentially, one actor has the whole market in their grasp.”
“They knew one month ahead of time how this whole thing would play out.”
Bulls who are eager to continue the bull run after Q4 2021 has ended should be focusing on $70,000.
D-Day for three Bitcoin price correlations
As Bitcoin makes significant correlations, the next few weeks will be “very important” for it.
TechDev, a popular Twitter analyst, concluded that Bitcoin was continuing to reproduce gold’s journey since the 1970s.
Despite volatility anomalies in Bitcoin price actions, the curious and even haunting similarities between BTC/USD 2020-21 and XAU/USD fifty-years ago have remained.
Bitcoin could see a dramatic rise if the trend continues, with a maximum price of $280,000. Mid-February 2022 is the deadline.
“1970’s Gold fractal now precisely aligned to and anchored at both the local high and low,” a commentator said in an update.
“Only Dec/Jan has an effect on model extension to the 1st Half of February.”
BTC/USD vs. 1970s Gold Chart. Source: TechDev/ Twitter
A breakdown of each phase of Bitcoin’s transformation since September is included. This month falls outside of the expected trajectory. December should see BTC/USD trade between $70,000 to $110,000.
Beyond gold, it’s Fibonacci sequences that dictate two additional correlations that will face their moment in the coming weeks.
Both of these relate to Bitcoin’s 2017 performance and both are valid. If one wins, the speed and height of price gains will change.
The peak at $150,000 or $225,000 could appear as early as December.
TechDev wrote, “MidDec to End Jan with a 230K Top remains my base case.”
“Obviously, the window on the older side looks less likely. It doesn’t matter if it is right. There has been compelling evidence suggesting that a top should be in place between December and March, with targets ranging from 120K to 260K.”
Raoul Pal, Global Macro Investor founder, responded by saying that he was proud of the three correlations and that the next weeks would be “very telling”.
Where will Bitcoin “Moonvember” end?
This was once the question that everyone wanted to know. But now, it is becoming more common for people to accept that this bull market might take longer to mature.
Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies you should be watching this week: BTC and BNB, LUNA (LUNA), MANA, SAND, LUNA (LUNA), SAND
Despite all this, there is still optimism for the near term.
A Twitter survey by @Bitcoin ended Monday. Nearly 50,000 people predicted that Bitcoin/USD would end November at $60,000.
35% chose the highest price possible on the survey. Another 25.7% predicted a November closing cost between $55,000-60,000.
Survey results from @Bitcoin Source: Twitter/ Bitcoin
It’s easy to forget how far Bitcoin has advanced in the past 12 months without zooming in. Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin/USD traded at less than $16,500 last Thanksgiving, which coincidentally also saw a short sell-off.
Benjamin Cowen, quant analyst, summarized this weekend by saying “Do not miss the forest for its trees.”