‘Too early’ to say Bitcoin price has reclaimed key bear market support — Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC), which was higher following the June 14 Wall Street Open, came as an indicator that analysts believed long-term support would be preserved.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle charts (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

FOMC meeting: Hopes for “relief.”

Data from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro followed BTC/USD as the pair traded above $22,500 at the time it was written. It had also reached local highs of $23,300 that day.

After nearing $20,000.800, the pair saw a strong rebound. Traditional markets also recovered after panic over inflation in the United States.

Material Indicators, an on-chain analytics resource for Bitcoin, noted that the market has reclaimed the 200 day simple moving average (200SMA) which was an important feature in Bitcoin bear markets and acted as support during previous price cycles.

However, it was “too soon to tell” whether the 200 SMA would still provide an attractive area, according to a tweet. The Federal Reserve will provide inflation cues starting June 15.

The 200 Week MA was just reclaimed by #BTC. There was some decent bid liquidity on #FireCharts. However, it is too early to know if it will hold. All eyes will be on Wednesday’s #FOMC conference. pic.twitter.com/OEV18iTSrD
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) June 14, 2022

Most crypto social media commentators kept the Fed in mind, as most expected a larger rate hike — 75 basis points rather than 50.

Tomorrow’s FOMC expectations are weighted heavily towards extreme 150-175 bps rate hikes pic.twitter.com/l5EW64mnvP
— CRYPTOBTCIRB (@crypto_birb) June 14, 2022

The market currently projects a 96% chance that the Fed will announce a 75bps increase on Wednesday. Although the market was pricing in a 50bps increase, last week’s hot inflation data changed this sentiment. “This week, a 75bps increase was given 4% chance,” popular Twitter account @tedtalksmacro said in one of a series tweets.

He said that a 50-point increase in stocks and crypto would signify that both stocks “should rally really hard,” while volatility was to be simulated by a “sell the gossip, buy the news” event.

Filbfilb, Decentrader cofounder, said that “maybe they provide some relief.”

Time to buy: metric in green announces time for purchase, first time since $3600

Meanwhile, excitement was building over the announcement that an on-chain metric had reached the “buy” zone for first time since March 2020.

Related: “Nothing issue” — MicroStrategy CEO plans on hodling Bitcoin “through adversity”.

The MVRVZ score is an indicator of how far spot price is from realized price. It was negative as BTC/USD fell below $23,400.

MVRV-Z has historically captured the lowest generation prices of Bitcoin. Therefore, buying in its green area has resulted in substantial returns.

Cointelegraph published an earlier week report on the significance and value of Bitcoin’s realized prices.

Chart of Bitcoin MVRVZ scores. Source: Glassnodecom. You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.