Bitcoin (BTC), which saw its first major test at $40,000 over several weeks, was able to do so overnight. But what price zones should traders be watching?
Many people are still able to see the whole range, no matter how long-term or short-term.
Bitcoin moves after the “moment” of truth
BTC/USD suffered a moderate selloff due to macro pressures on February 17, which continued into Friday with Bitstamp showing local lows at $40,330, according to data from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro.
The pair rose to $41,000 after a bounce, but nerves remain about further challenges to bulls’ resolve.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle charts (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Popular bounce zone for a break below $38,000 is currently at the moment. Credible Crypto, a popular Twitter account, reiterated that this number should be kept going forward.
They are summarized with a forecast chart as “Momentof truth”.
“Lows taken. If our bottom is at 32k, then downside should be limited below to form an even higher low. This is my primary and I believe we will hold this area and challenge monthly resistance again.
BTC/USD chart annotated Source: Credible Crypto/Twitter
Others were less optimistic about the prospect. Crypto Ed, a popular trader, was concerned about even the $40,000-per-test.
He said, “Hanging on to the 40k cliff feels like a miracle’s needed after that (for my) surprising move down yesterday.”
The macro bottom of $32,000 is reinforced by the structure of derivatives markets. Analyst Dylan LeClair noted that bidders entered the market at January’s point, which provided more than just a line in the sand to price stability.
He said, in one of several tweets about the environment: “The speculative air on the $BTC derivative markets has essentially unwound with spot market bidders holding at 33k in January.”
Honestly fam, if I had to judge by the weekly chart I would say pack your stuff it’s over but… yeah… let’s see pic.twitter.com/95Z9cObaS3
— muro – won’t DM you (@MuroCrypto February 17, 2022)
Some were a bit sceptical about the longer timeframes. LeClair however argued that by zooming out, there was no real change and that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles were still on track.
“The macro environment aside, bitcoin monetization continues. Bitcoin is now trading at approximately one-tenth of its previous cycle’s level despite all the uncertainty. He advised that you should not lose sight of the larger picture.
The overnight lows fulfilled a CME Bitcoin futures gap that was left from the exit out the $30,000-$40,000 corridor at beginning of the month.
CME Bitcoin futures 1-day candle charts Source: TradingView
Fidelity analyst: The price debate is “mostly noise”.
Jurrien Timmer (director of global macro at Fidelity) urged a shift in focus from price analysis to multi-year network growth after observing the year’s highs & lows.
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“Bitcoin’s trading range has been choppy for nearly a year, fluctuating between 30k to 65k. Although the debate about whether Bitcoin should go up or down is still a popular hobby, it’s mostly noise. He said this week to his Twitter followers that Bitcoin is all about the network.
Annotated chart of BTC/USD Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter
Timmer believes that Bitcoin’s price targets are in a similar regression curve as Apple’s transformation from the 1990s to now.
Although the journey to $1 Million and beyond could be slower than some hope, it is still possible. However, adoption and solidity in the network should always come first.
Bitcoin demand model chart. Source: Jurrien Teimmer/Twitter
Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin’s difficulty and hash rate are at an unprecedented level.