Bitcoin (BTC), a cryptocurrency, played wait-and see with traders as Wall Street opened to flat performance on June 28.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle charts (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Bollinger eyes “logical place” for Bitcoin bottom
TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro data showed that BTC/USD was at $21,000 on Bitstamp. However, they refused to commit to any firm trend.
However, the pair did not show any signs of weakness. Cointelegraph contributor Michael van de Poppe believes that an attack at important levels — including the 200-week moving mean near $22,400 — may be coming.
After a record breaking low of $20.6K, #Bitcoin rebounded. I was actually expecting a correction towards $20.3K. My positions on $FTM and $ADA, $AVAX, & $ETH are still strong. I believe we will see continued correction towards $22.4K or possibly $23.1K. pic.twitter.com/dbwYQiuZZL
— Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 28, 2022
“Bitcoin has always been a bargain under its realized price (i.e. the aggregate cost basis for all coins in stock). Popular trading account Game of Trades has added that the realized price currently sits at $22,500.
Although many expected a bullish trend to emerge soon, the long-term perspective also stressed current prices.
John Bollinger, the creator of Bollinger bands volatility indicator, was one of them. He in a new take on BTC/USD highlighted the culmination a trend many years in the making.
He suggested that the next move could be higher following a “picture-perfect” double top pattern of Bitcoin in 2021.
Picture perfect double top (M-type), in BitcoinUSD on the monthly charts. BandWidth confirms and %b leads you to the lower Bollinger Band tag. No sign of one yet, but this would be a logical place to put in a bottom.https://t.co/KsDyQsCO1F
— John Bollinger (@bbands) June 27, 2022
Research: All-time lows for “Almost all” Bitcoin metrics
Glassnode, an on-chain analytics company, provided further analysis to determine if Bitcoin is at its bottom as this week began.
Related: 3 charts that show the Bitcoin price decline is not like summer 2021
Glassnode’s latest weekly newsletter, “The Week On Chain”, analyzed a variety of on-chain metrics at various stages of signaling bottom formation.
Despite the unprecedented macroenvironment, however, there was no guarantee.
It concluded that “Within the current macroeconomic context, all models and historical precedents will be put to the testing.”
“Based on the current position of Bitcoin prices relative historical floor models, it is already extremely unlikely that the market will reach such a high level with only 0.2% trading days being in comparable circumstances.”
It was noted that recent sales were driven by those who bought BTC in 2020 or 2021.
“Almost all of the macro indicators for Bitcoin, from technical to onchain, are at all time lows. This coincides with previous bear market floor formations. The newsletter stated that many are trading at levels where they have only single-digit percentage points of previous history at similar levels.
The day’s sentiment was the same, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index standing at 10/100. This is “extreme fear” and also a classic reversal level for bear markets.
Screenshot of Crypto Fear and Greed Index Source: Alternative.mecom. You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.