Bitcoin (BTC), launches into a new week. It is determined to keep $60,000 in support — despite all-time highs not lasting.
Bulls took control after a Sunday dip and managed to keep BTC/USD above the sub-$60,000 mark.
Investors are excited to see what Bitcoin can do, despite the fact that neither the October nor April all-time highs have seen a retest.
The expectations are high — expectations as high as $300,000. In the next months and even a continuation to the bull run well into 2022.
Cointelegraph examines five factors that you should consider when charting BTC’s price action over the next few days.
Bitcoin’s “relentless spot offer”
Cool picture of global markets, as futures for United States stocks remain unchanged prior to the open.
Inflation is still a problem. Even the U.S. Federal Reserve acknowledges that it may stay higher for a while. Crypto circles are also engaged in intense debate about taxing unrealized gains.
The picture is not as bright as the soaring commodities. However, Bitcoin price triggers are a cooler proposition. A decoupling of macro moves has been a hallmark of BTC/USD for a long time.
Before Monday’s launch of the third Bitcoin futures exchange traded fund (ETF), more attention will be paid to gold and traditional ETFs, as well as the threat that Bitcoin presents to them.
Charles Edwards, CEO at Capriole Investments, said last week that CME open interest moving several places to number one globally in a matter days is not a barometer of massive institutional interest.
“This is a changing the guard.”
Chart showing open interest for Bitcoin futures. Source: Charles Edwards/Twitter
Edwards stated previously that futures-based ETFs would offer a “relentless spot bidding” on Bitcoin to counter concerns about its overall potency.
What is the support level for $BTC at this moment? When #Bitcoin reached $60K yesterday, $840M was bought in futures markets via market order. Key support/resistance levels can be determined using Taker Buy/Sell Volume. Set an alert herehttps://t.co/URSHem9Swb pic.twitter.com/ygh4KQAOVg
— Ki Young Ju jugiyeong (@ki_young_ju) October 25, 2021
Ki Young Ju, CEO at CryptoQuant’s on-chain analytics company CryptoQuant, said that when a challenge was set for $60,000 in futures, there were large buy-ins.
The 2017 bull run:
As Bitcoin rises above $62,000, it is a classic example of a bullish Sunday that turned into a weak Monday.
Last week’s 10% decline from the new $67,100 all-time highs and April’s $64,900 peak offered little support.
Bitcoin refused to abandon its new trading area as bearish calls started to surface. Even though analysis suggested that even $50,000 would still be solid price action, Bitcoin did not seem in any mood to do so.
Further relief was provided by the weekly close that failed to overcome a large buy wall, which is just below $60,000
“So far, so good,” Cointelegraph contributor Michael van de Poppe summarized in his latest update Monday morning.
“Bitcoin on its way to $90K”
This month, the schedule has been extended for this target — Van de Poppe expects this to happen in Q1 next, which is quite different from six-figure estimates that have a shorter timeframe.
October will end at $63,000. This leaves the uncharted territory of 2021’s last two months.
TechDev is a popular analyst who believes that Bitcoin is still reliving 2017’s price action with near uncanny accuracy. This would also suggest higher prices than December 2017, which was a blow-off.
A slightly flattened 2017 fractal continues, 140 days later, to predict #BTC price action better that most short-term TAs I’ve ever seen. pic.twitter.com/93l7RODsMU
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) October 25, 2021
VanEck ETF ready for Monday launch
Another reason to be bullish about institutional investment: Bitcoin’s ETF (exchange-traded fund) goes live this week.
VanEck is the next big name in cryptocurrency circles, thanks to years of trying to bring a Bitcoin ETF product on the market.
VanEck’s Bitcoin Strategy (XBTF), like last week’s offerings will have Bitcoin futures as the underlying. This will add to the competition ahead of a regulatory decision on physical ETFs.
XBTF will be the third Bitcoin futures ETF in the U.S. and will charge 0.65% management fees.
VanEck plans to also launch a physical ETF. The Securities and Exchange Commission will decide its fate on November 14.
Cointelegraph reported that despite mixed opinions about the utility of futures-based ETFs overall, ProShares’ U.S. pioneering debut was almost unrivalled in its reception.
The second, Valkyrie’s, was less intense.
“We see Bitcoin trading like gold,” Mike McGlone, a senior Bloomberg commodity strategist, said on the launch of the new product.
He referred to the “rags-to riches” transformation of gold that occurred in the 2000s, when it attracted its first U.S. ETFs.
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) was the first ETF in gold, and like ProShares, it gathered more than $1 billion within its first three trading days in November 2004.
Timeline for approval of Bitcoin ETF. Source: Arcane Research
There have been no major exchange sell-offs
Cointelegraph reported that exchanges are the main focus of current market conditions, as a macro trend of declining Bitcoin supply slows.
In bull runs, large inflows of BTC onto exchanges can signal the price point at the which the masses plan on selling — and thus the likely price top.
However, Bitcoin’s overall value has been declining, and this trend has been accelerating since the May crash.
The latest data shows that Binance appears to have diverged from major platforms this month. It is now seeing inflows BTC to its order books, while the rest of the market continues to shed reserves.
Overall, the run to new all time highs for BTC/USD produced a slight increase in exchange BTC levels but it is negligible when compared to the overall downtrend.
Chart of BTC exchange reserves Source: Bybt
It is well-known that Hodlers have no interest in selling short distances past their all-time highs. Institutional buyers are also not likely to plan snap sales after being exposed.
Over the last week, derivative exchanges saw a lot of buying activity.
A welcome detox of the emotions
Crypto market sentiment is changing again, but investors are becoming more cautious than earlier in the month.
Related: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week: BTC. SOL. AVAX. ALGO. AXS.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that unsustainable optimism during “Uptober,” when it comes Bitcoin and altcoins, is not a good mood.
The Index hit “extreme greed” last Monday, and has since deflated in accordance with BTC price action. It is now at 72/100, which simply means “greed.”
This level has formed a cluster several times in the last three months, reinforcing a feeling that a “reset” has occurred for sentiment with Bitcoin at $60,000.
The classic cycle top corresponds to a Fear & Greed score greater than 95/100. This implies that there could be further price upside, if it is slow enough.
As of Oct. 25, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been updated. Source: TradingView