According to Rekt Capital (a pseudonymous analyst in the market), Bitcoin (BTC), is poised to test $43,000 in March.
BTC recovers from solid support in 2022
The Bitcoin price drop to $37,000 on March 7, was met by modest buying sentiment. It then rose above $39,000 on March 8. The upside retracement movement originated from the same upward-sloping trendline that will serve as an accumulation zone in 2022.
Update after 2 Months: Too many retail investors using derivative exchanges could signal a bearish sign. We have some whales that are buying $BTC at this price range of 35k – 45k recently. Live Chart https://t.co/N7kJnbe06k pic.twitter.com/gK9AtzGoy6
— Ki Young Ju jugiyeong (@ki_young_ju) March 8, 2022
Rekt Capital noticed the successful retesting of the trendline in his most recent outlook. He noted that Bitcoin could climb to $43,100 next if it breaks through the green dashed diagonal resistance, as shown in the chart below.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital, TradingView
Rekt Capital commented on March 8 that “Successful Retest here and BTC could really repeat last week’s move.”
Bitcoin up to $30K
As Bitcoin traded in a wide range of $34,000 to $45,000 throughout Q1/2022, the interim bullish outlook was evident. BTC managed to withstand the extreme selloff pressure caused by ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical worries, such as rate hike fears, and military conflict between Russia, and Ukraine.
$BTC — Sideways — 32-34,5k key support, 43-47k major resistance — Headline Algo Trading + Correlation Chop in Between — Mid-term bull momentum case validated if 43-47k finally breaks (tested several times) — Sideways = wait for extremes/boundaries to trade, not there yet pic.twitter.com/RsytMYajWf
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt), March 8, 2022
Filbfilb, cofounder of DecenTrader trading software, noted last weekend that Bitcoin is “rangebound on a macro-level,” but that its long-term structure suggests it would be upside.
“In the immediate terms, if the 50 DMA level and the 3-day level are supported, a test of the $43K level and high timeframe level could happen,” Flibflib said. He added that a further break below Bitcoin’s annual pivot level of $48,000 would “very significant” and “implicative of a fundamental shift.”
Four-hour chart of the BTC/USD price. Source: Decentrader and TradingView
Rekt Capital’s upside setup showed little chance of Bitcoin continuing its recovery to $48,000. This is because the setup looks like a bearish “ascending triangular” pattern. A consolidation range that usually sends the price lower after a breakout move.
The profit target for an ascending triangle can be calculated by subtracting the breakout level from the maximum distance between its two trendlines.
Below is a chart that assumes that the breakout point will be between $37,500 to $45,000. This means that Bitcoin could drop as low as $30,000 to $35,000.
BTC/USD daily chart with ascending triangle breakout targets Source: TradingView
In recent history, both $35,000 and $30,000 have served as strong support levels.
Is the bottom of Bitcoin?
Flibflib also mentioned the $30,000 level that coincides with Bitcoin’s bottom logarithmic regression band — a “tried and tested” support level.
Related: Bitcoin headed to 36K Analysis amid warning global stocks “look expensive”
The analyst stated that Bitcoin is less likely to crash because it didn’t run up as high.
“The confluence of this and this at the bottom is significant in our view and supports the idea we won’t see such a drawdown like in previous cycles.”
BTC/USD 3D chart with yearly pivots, log growth curve and a visualisation of the yearly pivots Source: DecenTrader, TradingView
An aggressive capitulation event at the $30,000 level could see Bitcoin fall to its downside target of the 200-week simple movement average (200-weeks SMA), which is a “catch all” level that marks the end of previous bearish periods in March 2020 or December 2018.
The SMA for 200 weeks is around $20,000.
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