Bitcoin (BTC), saw a predictable decline in Wall Street open on April 11, as bears took over the market towards $40,000.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle charts (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin moves towards $40,000
Data from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro showed that Monday’s downtrend was picking up after a disappointing week.
As the week began, volatility took over from the calm weekend. This was due to equities losing ground around the world.
The Hang Seng closed in Hong Kong down 3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index was 2.6% lower. The DAX in Germany traded 0.77% lower at the time this article was written, mirroring the FTSE 100 in London.
Wall Street is just beginning to get its feet wet, so attention was drawn to the strength of US dollar (as evidenced by Monday’s repeat surge in the U.S. currency index (DXY), which surpassed the 100 mark.
B C Richfield, a Twitter commentator, stated that “Looking a bit overextended here” and not that it’s obvious in risk assets yet. This suggests a potential pullback target area.
“A pullback to the 99.437 region, which is the previous range high, is expected. If we hold here, then we might see more risk assets such as crypto. However, it is possible to close in the range and …”.
DXY chart showing significant levels. Source: B. C. Richfield/Twitter
The mood was calm as BTC/USD battled for $41,000 support. Bitcoin is expected to be following equities in their struggle against tightening central bank policy.
It is #Bitcoin that has been rejected. Let’s find support in the blue zone. https://t.co/qNKK1Tu7eC
— Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 11, 2022
In the meantime, Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index for March (CPI) was expected to reveal the truth of inflationary pressures ever since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in Europe in February.
CPI data was already at 40-year highs, but did not include conflict or its effect on supply chains, particularly food.
Markets are in for “massive surprise”
However, crypto veterans are increasingly expressing a contrary view. Instead of raising rates or reversing asset purchase to combat inflation, central banks would have to keep their current course despite the soaring price.
Related: BTC stock correlation ‘not the we want’ — 5 things you should know about Bitcoin this week
Podcast host Preston Pysh tweeted that “There’s an enormous shock in the economic markets (and really soon)”
“The trend line of 40-year bond yields is eroding and YCC is just around the corner,”
Pysh’s argument was similar to that of Arthur Hayes (ex-CEO of BitMEX), who in his most recent blog post on economy revealed that he had lost all trust in the idea of the Federal Reserve trying to lower inflation.
He wrote, “As I’ve said many times, it is not the goal to actually fight inflation but to appear to do so so that domestic politicians are able to survive an angry populace who works more but can’t afford less.”
“Central bankers should tighten, tighten and tighten some more — positive real rates will completely destroy the debt-based global economic system,”
If that happens to be a silver lining in crypto’s future, then it was all about the timing. A decrease in stock prices due to tightening could send Bitcoin lower initially.
Hayes said that the great thing about an 24/7 market is that everything happens quickly.
“Bitcoin and Ether will be testing these levels by the end of the second quarter, June this year. Bitcoin: $30,000, Ether $2,500.” You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.