Bitcoin (BTC), despite not reaching the November closing price as demanded by one its most well-known models, isn’t giving up.
PlanB posted on Twitter Dec. 1 that he would give his floor model another month to prove himself.
BTC floor model during probation
BTC/USD should’ve closed November with a worst-case scenario of $98,000. But a number of factors conspired to create a lower monthly close.
The pair missed its target by nearly $57,000. This is the first failure of PlanB’s floor models in Bitcoin’s history.
He wrote, “Floor model first missed (after nailing Aug.Sep.Oct)”.
“No model is perfect but this is a huge miss and the first in 10 years!” Outlier/black swan? “$98K Floor model miss after nailing Aug,Sep and Oct). Although no model is perfect, this is the first time in 10 years that it has failed. Outlier/black swan? Floor model will be given one more month. S2F model is unaffected, and on track for $100K. Beware of trolls who confuse Floor and the S2F model! https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD), December 1, 2021
Recently, the floor model was able to predict the monthly closes of August, September, and October. This increased the possibility that six figures might enter December.
PlanB reiterated that his other BTC price forecasting models are still valid, even though more analysts and traders accept that the bull market in 2021 may take longer to reach its peak.
The most popular stock-toflow-based tools are among them, with an average price of at least $100,000 between now and 2024. It is expected that Bitcoin will reach six figures in price by the end of 2018.
Unfortunate bull timing
The November close coincided also with new downside pressure on Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin correction weakest in 2021, as Santa Claus rally hopes rises
Panic over coronavirus and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitting inflation is not “transitory” in the natural world.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also showed that sentiment took a big hit. It dropped from “neutral” to “fear”.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
PlanB’s floor model is meanwhile hard at work to be a reliable price guide. In just four weeks it projects a BTC/USD price for $135,000.