Bitcoin critics say BTC price is going to $0 this time, but these 3 signals suggest otherwise

The onset of a crypto bear markets has brought out the “Bitcoin’s dead” crowd, who cheerily proclaim the demise of the largest cryptocurrency market capitalization.

If #Bitcoin falls 70% from $69,000 down to below $21,000, it could also fall 70% to $6,000. Imagine the forced sales that would occur during a #crypto sell-off. A more likely price target is $3,000
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) June 14, 2022

Investors have been suffering over the past months. Bitcoin’s price has fallen to $17,600 at the new 2022 low. However, the latest calls for Bitcoin’s death are likely to be just as bad as the 452 previous predictions.

Bitcoin obituary. Source: 99Bitcoins

The Resolute Bitcoiners have many tricks and on-chain metrics that they use to determine whether BTC is in a buy area. Now is the time for us to look into them. Let’s find out what the time-tested metrics have to say about Bitcoin’s current price action, and whether or not the bull market of 2021 was BTC’s last chance at redemption.

Some traders buy bounces from the 200-week moving mean.

The 200-week moving mean (MA) has been a reliable indicator of Bitcoin support. This chart was created by Rekt Capital, a market analyst.

BTC/USD vs. 200 week MA weekly chart. Source: Twitter

The area marked by the green circles shows that the lowest levels in bear markets in the past have been in areas close to the 200-MA. This has served as a major support level.

BTC has a tendency to briefly dip below this metric, then slowly rise above it to begin a new uptrend.

After briefly falling below this metric on June 14, the BTC price is currently trading at its 200-week MA. Although a price drop is possible, the history of Bitcoin suggests that it will not fall below its 200-week MA for an extended time.

Supports for price stability should be maintained over the long-term

The 200-week MA provides support, but there are other notable price levels that have been used in Bitcoin’s history. These should be used as support if the price continues to fall.

BTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

BTC’s last price below $24,000 was December 2020. Bitcoin had previously traded at $21,900 as a support level before it soared to $41,000.

If support at $20,000 fails to hold, then the next support levels will be near $19,900 or $16,500 as shown in the chart.

Related: It is too early to say that Bitcoin has reclaimed its key bear market support — Analysis

MVRV signifies that it is time to begin accumulating

One final metric that suggests BTC may be approaching an optimal accumulation phase is the market-value-to-realized-value ratio (MVRV), which currently sits at 0.969.

Ratio of Bitcoin market value to realized values Source: Glassnode

The chart shows that the MVRV score of Bitcoin is spending most of its time above a value 1 over the last four years, excluding two brief periods when it was affected by bearish market conditions.

The MVRV score fell to 0.85 in March 2020, and remained below 1 for seven days. The bear market from 2018 to 2019 saw it fall to 0.6992 and spend 133 days below 1.

The data doesn’t deny that BTC may see further price declines, but it does suggest that the worst has already occurred and that it is unlikely that these extreme lows will continue for long-term.

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