After reaching 5.8 million rubles per token on March 9, Bitcoin (BTC), has fallen by 30%. However, traders could use the drop to sell another large amount of Russian national currency, if there is a bullish continuation pattern.
Bitcoin heading towards 11,000,000 rubles
The “ascending triangular” pattern is formed when the price consolidates between a rising trendline (support), and a flat trendline (resistance). The pattern ends when the price moves out of the consolidation range in its previous trend direction. It is looking for levels that are equal to the distance between the upper and lower trendlines of the triangle.
The chart below shows that BTC’s ruble price has been trending in a similar way to the ruble since January 2021. It closed above the upper trendline of the triangle, increasing more than 20% to reach its all-time high at 5.88 million rubles.
BTC/RUB weekly chart with “ascending triangular” format. Source: TradingView
BTC corrected to test resistance support. This is a common sight after breakouts, when traders look for confirmation of the pattern that has more upside.
This suggests that the chances of the ruble rebounding and moving towards 11 million rubles in the future are high, a nearly 140% increase.
Russia’s capital controls
Technically, the BTC/RUB market’s technical outlook is bullish. This is despite the ongoing exodus of Russian assets following Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. Western nations have also collaborated to harm Ukraine’s ties to the global banking system.
Moscow Exchange suspended trading on February 28th until further notice. The same thing happened to shares of Russia-backed companies overseas. An MSCI index that tracks their exchange-traded funds reported nearly 78% outflows since February 24, when the invasion began.
Related: Are you a friend or a suspect? The stress test of the crypto industry: Ukraine’s war
Weekly price chart for iShares MSCI Russia ETF Source: TradingView
The ruble was down more than 50% against the U.S. Dollar since March 7, 1998, when Russia defaulted on its loans. Through a series of capital control measures, the Russian central bank intervened. These included a six-month ban on foreign currency sales.
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