Bitcoin (BTC), which could reach a staggering $333,000 by May 2022, if the U.S. Federal Reserve creates a “perfect storm”, of low rates, according to a new prediction.
Filbfilb, cofounder of trading platform Decentrader and updater of an uncannily precise price forecast on Dec. 27, reached dizzying conclusions regarding BTC price action in the coming year.
nalyst – “You don’t have enough crypto” to support the 2022 bull run
BTC/USD has been acting nearly to the letter in 2021 and is expected to see huge gains in the next six months, assuming that conditions do not change.
Two interest rate increases are expected by the Fed next year. These are likely to be priced in, according to pundits. However, a sudden change in tact could have profound consequences.
Filbfilb analyzes Fibonacci sequences and historical price action during previous halving cycles to determine if Bitcoin could rise past $300,000. This is due to Fed officials reducing rate hikes.
He told Cointelegraph that to get there “parabolically”, we would need a perfect storm: the Fed not raising rates (which are likely priced in), and high inflation leading to a flight in BTC.
The accompanying chart was posted to Twitter by BTC/USD in December 2018, as the USD/BTC bottomed at $3,100. It shows how predictable price action has been since then.
Filbfilb stated to Twitter that “Price is exactly what predicted.”
“You don’t have enough crypto to deal with what will happen in 2022.”
Annotated chart of BTC/USD Source: filbfilb/Twitter
It is not as impossible as it sounds, at least technically.
As more indicators point to a breakout to upside, signs are already sweeping the market. Even the smallest timeframe data can be encouraging. BTC/USD closed a four-hour candle higher than the 200-day moving mean (MA) on Dec. 27 for the first-time in six weeks.
In late September, a similar uptrend reached the same heights. This was at the beginning of a run-up that produced the current $69,000 all time highs.
BTC 4hr Candle closes in approximately an hour. This could be the first close above 200ma in six weeks. The price action before the last cross was similar. What happened this time? pic.twitter.com/sMkFMEB9Ky
— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) December 27, 2021
Stocks may win big, but not for very long
Commentators believe that stocks are in good shape despite a cooling U.S. Dollar.
Related: 5 Things to Watch in Bitcoin This Week: Countdown to the Yearly Close
George Gammon, the author of Rebel Capitalist Pro, an investing newsletter, was positive as the final week of 2021 began.
He predicted that Stock Market could rise in the next few months as the “end of pandemic narrative” continues.
This gives the Fed cover to raise rates even after QE zero. Markets will begin to digest the economic collapse and see the potential for a big impact from higher rates.
In such a situation, Bitcoin’s impact would depend on its relationship with stocks and whether it can rebound from a sudden decline like that Gammon suggests in March 2020.
However, the majority of people still believe that Bitcoin is far from its peak after the December turn.