Analyst PlanB says Bitcoin (BTC), will “probably” miss its November predicted monthly close.
On Nov. 25, the Twitter update by the author of the “worst case scenario” end-of month price forecasts stated that he was prepared to accept defeat for his first time.
First ever miss for Bitcoin floor model
Bitcoin’s current value is $40,000 less than what it should be for November.
PlanB now acknowledges that BTC/USD reaching $98,000 within the next five working days is unlikely.
He stated that “Floor model $98K Nov Close will probably be a one miss (after nailing Aug Sep, Oct, Oct)” in part of his Twitter comments.
After nailing Oct, Sep, and Oct, the floor model $98K Nov close is likely to be a first miss. S2F model is not affected, and in fact on track to $100K. pic.twitter.com/QO3bRUoGo3
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD November 25, 2021
PlanB spoke on a podcast hosted on November 11 by Saifedean ammous, author The Bitcoin Standard and The Fiat Standard. He explained why he believed the mathematical nature of the floor model was his confidence.
He stated, “If we don’t reach the $98,000 at November’s end, that would be the first time on this indicator in the entire Bitcoin history.”
The floor model accurately predicted the closing prices of August, September, and October at $47,000, $43,000, and $63,000, respectively, according to almost every letter or number.
Thank you for the 200% annual gains
After repeated confusion over the relationship between the two, he stated that the letdown of the floor price model will not have any effect on PlanB’s seminal Stock-to-Flow model series.
Stock-to-flow (S2F), currently requires a BTC/USD average price of $100,000 for this halving cycle. Q4 2021 is a good timeframe to allow for the first appearance.
The sister model, stock to-flow cross-asset, (S2FX), is even more with a $288,000 average. However, it has been criticised in recent weeks for underperforming BTC.
Ammous spoke to PlanB, who said that the gap in spot and S2F model prices has not threatened to invalidate the agreement.
To track progress, the model uses standard deviation bands. So far, BTC/USD has been well within the acceptable range.
BTC/USD vs. Stock-to-Flow Chart with Standard Deviation Bands. Source: S2F Multiple/Twitter
Cointelegraph reported that a number of indicators are still bullish about the future. The current price phase is more of a consolidation than a prelude for a deeper crash.
The BTC/USD exchange rate was $29,000 when it began 2021, and hodlers have increased by more than 210% since last Thanksgiving.