Bitcoin bounces to $30.7K as analyst presents Stock-to-Flow BTC price model rehash

Bitcoin (BTC), which saw new local highs overnight, climbed into June 3, after the United States cut losses.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle charts (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Wall Street offers short-term relief

Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data showed that BTC/USD gained steadily to reach $30,670 on Bitstamp. Before consolidating.

Stocks were more positive during the June 2 session. The S&P 500 recovered most of the ground it had lost over the previous month. The Nasdaq Composite index ended up 2.7%.

TechDev, a popular analyst, compared the crypto market cap to the Nasdaq and identified what might be an upcoming inflection point.

Potentially very interesting. #BTC / $NDQ
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) June 2, 2022

Pentoshi, a fellow analyst and trader, also issued a sobering outlook on the S&P 500’s weekly timeframes for the future.

This is my current working theory on #SPX and the markets in general. I had talked about 3840 in the past being a key spot I believe we just had our swing low and that the next weekly will look like the red part drawn on the chart w/ a higher low than last week and thus risk on ST
— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) May 22, 2022

Bitcoin continued to be called for a retracement. This would surpass May’s $23,800 lows.

Crypto Tony is still targeting between $22,000- $24,000 and requires a break from a trendline near $32,500 to be able to long scalp.

“Bitcoin held at $30K, so long as it would be intact from the $29.3K area,” Michael van de Poppe, a Cointelegraph contributor, meanwhile elaborated on his short-term strategy.

“Now, flipping $30.3K would make it possible to continue towards $31.8K.”

The current BTC/USD rate was around $30,500 at the time of writing.

Timmer: Bitcoin demand and supply need a “fresh approach”

Zooming out, an on-chain analyst was the latest to tackle the controversial Stock-toFlow (S2F), BTC price model.

Related: Flashing Buy is a classic Bitcoin metric.

Stock-to-Flow failed to validate its $100,000 end of year prediction for 2021 and has been increasingly marginalized by PlanB, its creator.

Jurrien Timmer (head of global macro at Glassnode’s on-chain analytics firm Glassnode) acknowledged the model’s shortcomings and offered a fix that would improve its utility.

“It’s high time to rethink Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics,” started a dedicated Twitter thread.

Timmer suggested taking into consideration Bitcoin’s supply curve in order to create a more conservative price growth trajectory. He believed that the result had already retroactively captured BTC’s price action better than the S2F predictions.

This close-up shows that the more modest supply model was (in hindsight), more accurate than the original S2F projections for this halving period. /15
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 2, 2022

If accurate, it suggests that there is still a lot of upside but not as much. He said that there may be several years of sideways in keeping with the halving cycle and likely continued volatility.

PlanB noted that Bitcoin’s May close was the lowest since December 2020.

Cointelegraph reported that the next block subsidy-halving event is becoming increasingly important as a marker for a return of bullish strength.

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