Bitcoin analysts are watching these BTC price levels as key trendline looms

Bitcoin (BTC), which is currently trading at its lowest level since June 13th, 2020 (mid-December 2020), could still be the bottom.

The weekend sell-off is intensifying and BTC/USD has fallen below its realized price now for the first time since March 2020. Data from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro confirms this.

Bitcoin holds on to its realized price

The realized price, which is the average price at the last time each BTC moved, stands at $23,400. This support acts as the first solid support on shorter time frames.

Bitcoin realized price vs. BTC/USD chart. Glassnode

Previous levels, even those that were considered potential bottoms have not held and sentiment continues favoring further sell-side pressure due to the Celsius aftermath and inflation, as well as the forthcoming actions of the United States Federal Reserve.

The debate about where BTC/USD might place a final macro floor is heated.

Analysts and traders agree that the 200-week simple moving mean (200 SMA) is the first port of call in case there is a significant drawdown.

The 200 SMA was at $22,370 as of June 13th. It has been a key support throughout Bitcoin’s life, with only brief wicks beneath it marking generational spot prices bottoms.

Bulls hope that the 200 SMA will give them a respite from their uptrend.

BTC/USD 1-week Candle Chart (Bitstamp), with 200 SMA. Source: TradingView

Josh Rager stated that “people are looking to purchase there, it’s likely to bounce more than most at that area,” in a video update.

He described the bounce at 200 SMA as “self-fulfilling prophecy” due to the extent of interest in it. However, he cautioned that BTC/USD would likely not continue down this time.

This is due to historical precedent that shows Bitcoin settling at 84% below its most recent all-time high. This would mean that Bitcoin’s bottom would be at $11,000, or $69,000.

Rager stated, “That would be harmful; I don’t think that the price drops that far. I mean you’re basically looking at the complete retraced of the entire bullish market and we haven’t seen that.”

The 2017 all-time high of $20,000 is a good area to focus on, along with the immediate below which can reach $17,000. He also mentioned $14,000 which is a retracement of 80% from current all-time highs.

Cointelegraph reported that several of these levels were already highlighted by other analysts and traders as possible bottoms.

A series of tweets from June 13 brought back the significance of the 200 SMA.

Historically, #BTC tends to wick -14% to -28% below the 200-week MA A -14% wick this time around would translate to a ~$19000 $BTC A -28% wick would mean BTC could reach as low as ~$15500 before reversing to the upside#Crypto #Bitcoin
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 13, 2022

Fed is bulls’ last hope saloon

BTC/USD was able to stay in line with U.S. equity markets at the time of writing.

Related: The lowest weekly close since December 2020 — 5 things you should know about Bitcoin this week

The S&P 500 lost 3% in the first hour of trading while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.6%.

Some claim that crypto’s decline can be stopped by the Fed, which reverses monetary tightening, as rising interest rates slow growth.

“Realize the importance of this crypto dump to Celsius and the STETH drama and all that has to do the widespread panic in risk assets, (equities, crypto alike), and broken charts,” Alex Krueger, an economist, trader, and entrepreneur, said to his Twitter followers, ignoring the Celsius news.

You can also read the following post:

“This is my opinion. I am often wrong.” Celsius has added 1.2x fuel to my guess. Everyone agrees that Celsius is the new fuel. Tomorrow’s media will be live. This would have been possible without Friday’s CPI numbers, and the equities falling.

Long-time Bitcoin market participants were not fooled by the illusions. If BTC/USD drops below $20,000, this would mark the first time that an all-time high in the previous halving cycle would be reached.

Tomorrow is #Fed FOMC. Chances of 50bps increase vs 75bps.
— Ansel Lindner (@AnselLindner) June 13, 2022

Charles Edwards CEO of Capriole asset manager, stated that without a Fed pivot, I believe this will be Bitcoin’s first cycle below its all-time high.

com. You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.